The Warriors struggled to find the optimal blend of young talent and veterans in their rotation this season. The No. 19 pick in the NBA Draft gives them another chance to get it right.
After winning the 2022 NBA Championship, it seemed like the Warriors were pulling off their two timelines approach to perfection. The talent and experience of Draymond Green, Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson kept them in the championship hunt. The rising talent of younger contributors like Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and James Wiseman would help them stretch their dynasty into the next era.
However, it didn't work out as expected with Moody falling out of the rotation, Kuminga chafing under his role, Wiseman struggling so much he was eventually traded and Poole completely imploding in the playoffs. It sounds like the Warriors are going to try and run it back next season with the same structure but the No. 19 pick is a chance to address what was missing, and find the right mix.
Perfect NBA Draft picks for the Golden State Warriors: 3. Dereck Lively II
Lively has been connected with the Warriors in multiple mock drafts and he does make a certain bit of sense for them. He's almost certainly going to be available in the range in which they're selecting and, as a 7-foot-1 big man with an enormous wingspan, strong rim protection skills and vertical spacing potential he could be both a defensive anchor and a solid pick-and-roll partner.
My question is how essential the Warriors feel those skills are, given the way they play, the likelihood that Lively needs a season or two to develop into someone they can trust in high-leverage situations and the fact that a similar bet on James Wiseman just flamed out spectacularly. (To be fair, Lively is a MUCH better defensive prospect than Wiseman was, if more limited overall because of less offensive versatility).
Lively feels like a safe pick that could pay dividends. But if it pays off it would probably be paying off mostly on a post-Steph Curry timeline and I think it's more likely the Warriors try to get creative instead.
Perfect NBA Draft picks for the Golden State Warriors: 2. Ryan Rupert
Rupert may be a big reach for the Warriors at No. 19. He was tabbed in the 20s on a lot of mock drafts earlier in the season but later you'll find him anywhere from No. 23 (Tankathon) to No. 33 (our latest). The biggest draws in his draft profile are incredible positional size — a 6-foot-7 point guard with a 7-foot-2 wingspan — and aggressive, suffocating defense both at the point of attack and off the ball.
He has incredibly quick hands and both knows how to use his body to deter penetration and shots but also when to reach in and force turnovers.
Rupert played for the New Zealand Breakers in Australia's NBL last season so the tape on him is coming against a lower level of competition or in junior international tournaments. But he has the potential to be an incredibly disruptive defender and there are no questions about his motor and aggressiveness
While he's still figuring out his offensive game — specifically spot-up shooting and finishing through contact around the rim — he's a smooth ball-handler with playmaking upside who is also comfortable cutting and working off the ball in space.
His ceiling may be more nebulous and ultimately lower than some of the other players available in this range but I love the idea of him as a complementary piece on the Warriors, much more so than some of the other wings who offer a more reliable offensive mix of shooting and secondary playmaking. Rupert feels like a longer Gary Payton II with more offensive upside and I could envision him contributing as a defensive specialist as early as next season, making working off the gravity of Curry and Thompson to make an offensive impact while he develops at that end of the floor. And a wing/forward rotation of him, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody has a lot of two-intrigue for a few years down the line.
Perfect NBA Draft picks for the Golden State Warriors: 1. Leonard Miller
Miller makes a lot of sense as a target for both the Lakers and Heat who are selecting right before the Warriors, so there is a question about whether he will last until No. 19. But if he's there, he would give Golden State a lot to think about.
A 6-foot-10 forward with length, athleticism and motor, Miller is an interesting blend of two-way potential. He averaged 16.9 points, 10.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.0 steals per game for the G League Ignite last season, making an impact with energy and his physical tools. There are still a lot of rough edges in his game that needed to be sanded down — stretching his range to the 3-point line, shot selection, and off-ball defensive awareness. But he's a fantastic rebounder, a good finisher with a nose for the ball, can be a defensive playmaker and has an interesting ball-handling package.
Kevin O'Connor compared him to a leaner Paul Millsap and if he develops his rim protection instincts, I think he could end up as a full-time 4 who both moonlights as a small ball 5 and can handle switching onto wings. At the other end of the floor, his handle and athleticism would let him take advantage of mismatches in a variety of ways from that position.
Miller may not have a ton to offer the Warriors next season, but he could be regular season frontcourt depth and form a fantastic frontline with Kuminga and Moody on the next iteration of this team a few years out.
Check out The Step Back for more news, analysis, opinion and unique basketball coverage. Don't forget to follow us on Twitter and Instagram and subscribe to our daily email newsletter, The Whiteboard.
