The Atlanta Braves regular-season success did not lead to postseason wins, as they fell to the Philadelphia Phillies for the second straight NLDS. Braves fans are rightly asking questions, especially after a 104-win season. Changes will be made, especially to the pitching staff. Bullpen upgrades are understandable -- Atlanta had a surprising lack of velocity come the end of the season. The starting rotation brings with it its own questions, though.
Kyle Wright is expected to miss the entire 2024 season despite trying to come back near the end of this year. Charlie Morton has an option, and will turn 40 years old this offseason. His return is not guaranteed. Even Max Fried is in an arbitration year and could theoretically be a trade target for opposing teams. There's a lot happening in Atlanta.
If last offseason is any indication, a Morton return would mean the Braves likely have around $20 million to spend on upgrades to their pitching staff. Here are some players who fit that mold.
Atlanta Braves should target Sonny Gray this offseason
I've discussed the Sonny Gray-Braves fit several times so far this week, as Gray has made it clear his primary goal is to win a World Series, and sign somewhere he knows he'll have a regular opportunity to compete. Gray should make $20 million or under on a three-to-four year deal, as is currently projected. He likes Minnesota plenty, but that's doesn't mean he isn't open to other locations.
"We want to go to a place where you feel wanted," said Gray, per The Athletic's Dan Hayes. "I don't know if this is the right thing to say before going to become a free agent, but I'll say it because it's honest. Money is not the ultimate factor for me. Never has been. Having said that, you want to be valued appropriately. … There are a lot of factors that go into those decisions. It's not only me making it. As anyone who's known me throughout the course of this year and last year, there are a lot of other things that go into it, my wife and my kids a big part of it. But I do love it here."
Gray enjoys playing for the Twins organization. They just made the ALDS, which is as far as the Braves have gotten the past two seasons. Were he to sign in the ATL, Gray would immediately become a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Atlanta Braves should consider James Paxton
James Paxton has been a free agent before, and he's ready for a new challenge. Paxton came back from serious injury in Boston and emerged as a middle-of-the-rotation talent. With the Braves, he'd likely fill a similar role behind the likes of Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Morton. Yet, if this season proved anything, it's that Atlanta needs to provide Brian Snitker more veteran starting pitchers he can rely upon.
"I think I'm in a different spot this time around in free agency than I was last time. I'm not injured. I'm going to come in ready to pitch right away, so that's different," Paxton told the 'Baseball Isn't Boring' podcast. "Who knows what's going to happen? I don't know what teams are going to come calling. What the Red Sox needs are. What direction they are going. I will be open to everything and then make a decision with my family and figure out what is best for us."
Paxton is open to remaining in Boston, and they could very well make him an offer in free agency. Spotrac lists Paxton's likely value as less than $10 million. Were they to make him that exact offer, Anthopoulos would have enough left over to improve the bullpen and then some.
Atlanta Braves best move may be Seth Lugo
If the Braves want the best bargain buy this offseason, Seth Lugo is a good bet. Lugo had a sub-4 ERA this season and is expect to opt out of his current contract, which would only pay him $8 million. While Lugo is reportedly open to staying with the San Diego Padres on the right deal, the opt out essentially severs ties.
Lugo is worth over $10 million, but for most teams he would serve as a No. 3 starting pitcher. In Atlanta, he'd be a No. 4 behind Fried, Morton and Strider. This bumps Bryce Elder, a pitcher who make the NL All-Star team in 2023, to the No. 5 spot. Good luck beating that starting rotation.
The Padres may be aggressive in pursuing Lugo to some extent because their ace, Blake Snell, will also be a free agent. Snell could very well be the NL Cy Young this season despite San Diego failing to make the playoffs.
Lugo is a great fit in Atlanta, and knows the NL East well from his days as a New York Met.
