Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Moreno prediction and odds for UFC 290

2023-07-08 20:50

The flyweight championship is on the line when Brandon Moreno defends his belt against Alexandre Pantoja.Despite entering as the challenger and the betting underdog, Pantoja has won the prior two against the Mexican born champion. After outlasting Deiveson Figueriedo in a trilogy and Kai-Kara Fr...

The flyweight championship is on the line when Brandon Moreno defends his belt against Alexandre Pantoja.

Despite entering as the challenger and the betting underdog, Pantoja has won the prior two against the Mexican born champion. After outlasting Deiveson Figueriedo in a trilogy and Kai-Kara France, Moreno's stiffest test comes against someone he has never beaten.

Can "The Cannibal" Pantoja knock off "The Assassin Baby" champion and get his first taste of UFC gold?

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Moreno odds and total

Moneyline:

Pantoja: +175
Moreno: -205

Total: 3.5 (Over -165/Under +135)

Odds are available via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Moreno prediction and pick

Pantoja beat Moreno on the 24th season of "The Ultimate Fighter" by submission as both were coming up as prospected. He did it again in 2018 by unanimous decision, and while it may that appear that a lot has changed, I still favor the challenger.

Moreno was able to get the better of Figueiredo in a thrilling series, but I'm not going to overrate that set of matches as the champion changes gears for a poor matchup for him. Pantoja has the far superior grappling edge, bolstering 10 submission victories and vicious striking capabilities, averaging nearly one more significant strike per minute and is far more potent finding a home, landing eight percent more of his strikes.

While "The Assassin Baby" has never been finished, I believe that Pantoja possesses far more finishing ability, capable of landing more damaging strikes and control en route to getting ahead on the scorecards.

Further, Pantoja enters far fresher. "The Cannibal" has fought three times since 2021 and has had nearly one year off to prepare for this fight. On the contrary, Moreno has fought four championship fights in the same time frame.

With the finishing upside as well as the grappling advantages, this is a clear bet on Pantoja. I believe that the champion's recent stretch is clouding the poor matchup for him.

PICK: Pantoja ML (+175)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.