Big 12 Championship Game scenarios after Texas tops Iowa State in Week 12

2023-11-20 05:15

While it seemed as though Texas clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game after beating Iowa State in Ames on Saturday night, the Longhorns have not technically clinched just yet. Here is a look at who is still alive to get to Arlington right now.

Just when everybody and their brother thought the Texas Longhorns clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game following a tough road win at Iowa State, not so fast, my friend... Even at 10-1 (7-1) on the season, Texas has not officially punched its ticket to Arlington just yet.

Admittedly, it is going to take a whole bunch of chaos for that not to happen, but isn't chaos what makes the Big 12 special?

For all intents and purposes, Texas will punch its ticket this week after handling business vs. Texas Tech at home on Black Friday. They would be the only team in Big 12 play with an 8-1 mark in conference play, so they would be the No. 1 seed with a potential trip to the College Football Playoff on the line in this scenario. Unfortunately, where things stand, Texas does not control its own destiny...

The Longhorns need to beat Texas Tech, defeat whoever they face in Arlington, and hope teams like Florida State, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Washington don't go undefeated. Michigan or Ohio State will suffer its first loss of the year next week, as they play each other, but an undefeated Big Ten champ, an undefeated FSU, an undefeated UGA and an undefeated U-Dub is real bad news for Texas.

But first, Texas must get to Arlington. Let's look at how they get there and who the Horns could play.

Big 12 Championship Game scenarios: Who all can still get to Arlington?

Where it stands now, there are four teams left in contention for one of two spots in the Big 12 Championship Game. Those teams in contention for it are Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas. The Longhorns get in with a win over Texas Tech, but the Big 12 has done a terrible job of explaining its tie-breaking procedures in the event multiple teams share the same conference record.

Here is what needs to happen for Texas to get in:

First with win over Texas Tech
First with loss to Texas Tech, Oklahoma loss to TCU, Oklahoma State loss to BYU
First with loss to Texas Tech, Oklahoma win over TCU, Oklahoma State win over BYU, Kansas State win over Iowa State
Second with loss to Texas Tech, Oklahoma State loss to BYU

The only way Texas does not get in is if the Longhorns lose to the Red Raiders, Kansas State loses to Iowa State, Oklahoma beats TCU and Oklahoma State beats BYU. This is because Texas would lose the three-way tiebreaker with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State based on games against each other. Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma and the Sooners beat Texas. 1-0 > 1-1 > 0-1 in mathematical terms.

Here is what needs to happen for Oklahoma State to get in:

First with win over BYU, Texas loss to Texas Tech and Oklahoma loss to TCU.
First with win over BYU, Oklahoma win over TCU, Texas loss to Texas Tech, Kansas State loss to Iowa State.
Second with win over BYU, Texas win over Texas Tech.
Second with loss to BYU, Texas win over Texas Tech, Oklahoma loss to TCU.
Second with loss to BYU, Oklahoma loss to TCU, Kansas State loss to Iowa State.

Oklahoma State has the second best chance getting to Arlington behind Texas because the Pokes hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Oklahoma and Kansas State. They did not play Texas this year.

Here is what needs to happen for Oklahoma to get in:

First with win over TCU, Texas loss to Texas Tech, Oklahoma State loss to BYU.
Second with win over TCU, Texas win over Texas Tech, Oklahoma Sate loss to BYU.
Second with win over TCU, Texas loss to Texas Tech, Oklahoma State win over BYU, Kansas State loss to Iowa State.

While there is still a slim chance Oklahoma could get the No. 1 seed, the Sooners have to win to have any chance of making it to Arlington, as a third conference defeat on the year will eliminate them here.

And here is what needs to happen for Kansas State to get in:

Second with win over Iowa State, Oklahoma State loss to BYU, Oklahoma loss to TCU.
Second with win over Iowa State, Oklahoma win over TCU, Oklahoma State win over over BYU, Texas loss to Texas Tech.

K-State can only get back to the Big 12 Championship Game with a win over Iowa State, and the Wildcats would only be the No. 2 seed in that scenario, just like last year. They also need some help...

Ultimately, chalk would get us Texas as the No. 1 seed and Oklahoma State as the No. 2 seed. Since all four of these teams in question are ranked and are playing at home, they should be favored to win. While the winner of the Big 12 Championship Game featuring any combination of these four teams should be good enough to make the New Year's Six, only a 12-1 Big 12 champ Texas makes the CFP.

Now that you have a better understanding of the Big 12 title bout scenarios, you can relax, alright.