The No. 2 seed Celtics draw closer to history as Boston heads back to Miami for Game 6 now down 3-2 to the No. 8 seed Heat.
After winning two straight games while facing elimination, the Celtics look to force a decisive Game 7 on Monday night with a win on the road against Jimmy Butler and Miami. Boston's offense has been humming for the last game-plus and enter Game 6 as road favorites. Can Boston become the fourth team in NBA history to force a Game 7 after trailing 3-0?
Let's check out the odds for the pivotal Game 6:
Celtics vs. Heat odds, spread and total
Celtics vs. Heat prediction and pick
The biggest storyline heading into Game 6 is the health of Gabe Vincent. He badly rolled his ankle at the end of Game 4 and missed Game 5 with a sprained ankle. While there was optimism on Thursday that he would be available, Vincent appears to be a game-time call.
He was missed dearly in Game 5 as the Heat had 16 turnovers that jumpstarted the Celtics offense as Miami is devoid of playmakers without Vincent. Kyle Lowry drew the start, the only "guard" available for the game, and he couldn't handle primary ball handler duties, turning the ball over four times in 30 minutes.
If Vincent is in, I think Miami wraps up the series. He's that important, and the margins are that thin. The Heat's turnovers per 100 possessions jumps by four per 100 possessions when he is off the floor in the postseason and the team's three-point defense goes from 31% when he is on to 36% when he is off, per PBPStats.
Boston's defense got the team going early and it never really looked back in Game 5, hitting seven more three's than Miami and committing seven fewer turnovers. However, after a blistering start that had the team up 15 after the first, it was a pretty even game the rest of the way. Fourth quarter was extended garbage time, but the Heat were +1 in the second and third quarter.
The Celtics have more talent, but the Heat made too many unforced errors that made it impossible to keep up. I think Vincent plays (but wait for confirmation) and I think the Heat advance to the NBA Finals.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
