The Los Angeles Angels and Arizona Diamondbacks have both lost two straight games as they begin their weekend series on Friday night.

Arizona has been one of the bigger surprises in Major League Baseball, sitting atop the NL West through the halfway point of the season. Los Angeles, on the other hand, is battling for position in the wild card in the AL, sitting six games behind Texas in the AL West.

Griffin Canning (6-2, 3.99 ERA) gets the ball for the Angels in this game against Arizona lefty Tommy Henry (4-1, 4.31 ERA).

Let's break down the odds and a pick for Friday's Game 1:

Diamondbacks vs. Angels odds, run line and total

Diamondbacks vs. Angels prediction and pick

Arizona has won every single one of Henry's starts this month and is 9-3 when he's on the mound, but I can't help but feel like he's due to regress.

There's a few reasons why:

• Henry has a Fielding Independent Pitching of 5.44, more than a run above his ERA.
• He ranks well in hard hit percentage and average exit velocity against, but he's not missing a ton of bats.
• Henry ranks in the seventh percentile in strikeout percentage and 25th percentile in whiff percentage this season.
• The Angels absolutely crush lefties, ranking seventh in MLB in OPS against southpaws.

Henry could always turn in a good start, and he's definitely avoided hard contact in 2023, but his FIP suggests it's only a matter of time before he starts to regress.

Canning, on the other hand, looks to be turning things around with a 2.35 ERA this month.

The Angels have also won four of his five starts at home. I think he's the better starter in this matchup, so I'll side with the Angels to pull out the win.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.