Warren Gatland is convinced his Wales team will pull off “something special” at the Rugby World Cup.

Finding any evidence to back up that bold assertion isn’t easy.

The Welsh have won just five of their 20 games since the start of 2022. They’ve plunged to No. 10 in the world ranking, tied for their lowest all-time spot. Many of their stalwarts such as Alun Wyn Jones and Justin Tipuric are no longer around. Captain Ken Owens is out injured.

Their last result before heading to France? A 52-16 drubbing by South Africa, marking the first time Wales has conceded more than fifty points in a game across Gatland’s two spells in charge.

So, where is his optimism coming from?

“I love Wales being written off,” Gatland said, "and people can keep doing that because it just makes us stronger.”

Maybe it’s the inner belief Gatland has as one of the great coaching minds of his generation.

Maybe it’s the fact that Wales under Gatland has reached the semifinals in two of the last three World Cups, and come oh-so-close to getting to the final. There was a 9-8 loss to France in 2011, when Wales played with 14 men for around an hour after a red card to captain Sam Warburton, and a 19-16 loss to eventual champion South Africa in 2019.

Or maybe it’s simply the draw, made three years ago, that will see the Welsh avoid any of the world’s five highest-ranked teams (Ireland, New Zealand, France, South Africa and Scotland) until the semifinals — should they get there, of course.

As it stands, getting out of the pool stage is far from certain.

Wales has been grouped with Fiji, Portugal, Australia and Georgia. The Fijians and Australians are higher in the world rankings and the Georgians are only one place lower – and beat the Welsh in Cardiff last November.

“Our target is to get out of our group and make the quarterfinals,” Gatland told the Up Front podcast. “We’re on the good side of the draw so if we get to the quarterfinals, we’ve got a good chance to go a long way.

“The thing with the Welsh boys, they build on momentum, they build on confidence, they start really believing.”

Gatland is excited to be working with a young, hungry group of players which includes flanker Jac Morgan and hooker Dewi Lake, who were confirmed as co-captains at the age of 23 and 24, respectively. It evokes memories of Warburton getting the captaincy for Wales at age 22 for the 2011 World Cup.

And in the likes of flankers Tommy Reffell and Congo-born Christ Tshiunza and winger Louis Rees-Zammit, there certainly are some exciting talents in the team.

Whether they are ready to take Wales far at a World Cup is another question entirely and it leaves many wondering if Gatland is about to tarnish his legacy with Wales, which he has led to three Grand Slams in the Six Nations (in his initial spell from 2008-19) as well as those two runs to the World Cup semifinals.

He has even questioned publicly — even if it was tongue-in-cheek — why he came back for a second time after answering an SOS from the Welsh Rugby Union late in 2022 as a replacement for Wayne Pivac.

He was referring more to off-the-field issues such as financial chaos in the provincial teams that briefly sparked a strike by players, and complaints of a toxic culture inside the federation amid allegations of racist, homophobic and sexist bullying.

However, Gatland likes a challenge, and he’s sure got one in charge of a team with just two wins from eight in his second stint.

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AP rugby: https://apnews.com/hub/rugby