How Penn State can still win Big Ten, make College Football Playoff

2023-10-22 05:18

After Penn State's loss to Ohio State in Week 8, there's still a chance the Nittany Lions make it to the Big Ten Championship and the College Football Playoff. Here's how.

The Penn State Nittany Lions had a great shot to push themselves into College Football Playoff position. Entering Week 8 with the No. 7 ranking in the nation, Penn State arrived in Columbus to take on the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes. With a victory, Penn State could essentially take their spot in next week's rankings within the top four.

Instead, Penn State lost 20-12 to Ohio State to earn their first loss of the season. Even though they hung in there for most of the game, the offense couldn't do anything against the Buckeyes' defense, as they put up just 240 yards on 68 plays (3.5 yards per play).

With that, Penn State faces rather steep odds to make it not just to the College Football Playoff but also the Big Ten Championship Game. After all, Ohio State and Michigan are in their division. But is it possible to make it?

How Penn State can make it to Big Ten Championship Game, College Football Playoff

While Penn State has the one loss to their record, it's not a complete lost cause for them.

The best path for them to make the Big Ten Championship is for the Nittany Lions to win out the rest of the season. Below is their remaining schedule this season:

Week 9 (Saturday, Oct. 28): vs. Indiana
Week 10 (Saturday, Nov. 4): at Maryland
Week 11 (Saturday, Nov. 11): vs. Michigan
Week 12 (Saturday, Nov. 18): vs. Rutgers
Week 13 (Saturday, Nov. 25): at Michigan State

The one pivotal game is in Week 11 against Michigan. If Penn State wins, their hopes of becoming the Big Ten East champions are alive. But they would need the Wolverines to beat Ohio State in the final week of the college football regular season. With that, each team is tied at 11-1. So, who would have the advantage in the tiebreaker?

If this scenario were to take place, all three teams would have to go to the fifth tiebreaker, which is the best cumulative record against non-divisional conference opponents. Penn State's non-divisional opponents this season were Illinois, Northwestern, and Iowa). Entering Week 8, Iowa was in the lead in the Big Ten West Division. With that alone, Penn State has a great chance to score that tiebreaker over Ohio State and Michigan and win the Big Ten East title.

Or, you know, Penn State wins out, and Michigan and Ohio State pick up more than one loss each to end the season. That would create a much easier path.

If Penn State were to pick up the win in the Big Ten Championship Game, they would have to await their fate from the College Football Playoff selection committee. Given it is the Big Ten, the champion should get a spot.

So for those of you asking, could this actually happen? Yes, technically. But Penn State will need to win out, beat Michigan, and for the Wolverines to beat the Buckeyes.