This trip out west hasn't gone great for the 37-31 Miami Marlins who lost to the now 33-33 Seattle Mariners yesterday and are trying to avoid getting swept tonight. Yesterday, George Kirby struck out 10 Marlins in a 9-3 win and today the Mariners will go with an even better right-hander, Luis Castillo.
Castillo comes into this start at 4-4 with a 2.70 ERA in his 13 starts for Seattle this season. The Marlins have to hope that their 20-year-old rookie can outduel Castillo in the series finale. Eury Perez has made six career starts for Miami and has been great with a 2.17 ERA and a record of 3-1.
The Mariners are favorites to close out the sweep and get over .500 again.
Marlins vs. Mariners odds, run line and total
Marlins vs. Mariners prediction and pick
Even Luis Arraez hasn't been able to get a hit for Miami in this series, he is now 0-9 and his average has plummeted to .382. The Marlins have a team OPS of .710 in June, but in the past week that is down to .617 with only 16 runs scored over that stretch. Without Arraez getting on base at a ridiculous clip at the top of the order, the entire constriction of Miami's lineup begins to fall apart. Jorge Soler and Garrett Cooper had good days at the plate yesterday and drove in runs, but without Arraez on they couldn't post the crooked number they needed to withstand a bad outing from Edward Cabrera.
Today could be another day they need a crooked number or a big inning and just can't put it together. Castillo has been great for Seattle and that's going to continue, but his counterpart might not keep his ERA in the twos for very long. Perez has a FIP of 4.34 with 22 hits and 13 walks in 29.0 innings this season. He does have 30 strikeouts, but with an 83rd percentile whiff rate, he should be striking out more batters. His walk rate is also 23rd percentile and his expected ERA is 3.68.
Someday Perez will be the type of pitcher that can stare down a Luis Castillo and prevent his team from getting swept, but in his rookie year at 20-years-old, today is not that day.
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