With NBA free agency on the horizon, several high-profile players are set to hit the restricted free agent market. Which teams will hand out big offer sheets?
Restricted NBA free agency is the league's great double-edged sword. It allows a team to match any offer sheet signed by a young player, keeping recent draft picks under team control. A team can also spend hours, days, weeks agreeing to terms with a player, only for that player's former team to match the contract and vanquish any new partnership.
The summer of 2023 will feature several high-profile names testing the restricted free agency market. A handful of teams are expected to have enough cap space to really make a splash: Houston, Indiana, Detroit, Utah, San Antonio, Orlando, and Oklahoma City.
While virtually every expiring rookie contract leads to restricted free agency, this article will focus on the heavy-hitters — most of whom could receive upward of $20 million per year if the right team comes knocking. Important to note, of course, is that there is a difference between signing an offer sheet and joining the team, for the reasons mentioned above. Some predicted offer sheets are likely to be matched.
NBA free agency prediction: Who will sign P.J. Washington?
The Hornets' recent draft history is uneven at best, but P.J. Washington is a genuine success story. He's the prototypical modern big — capable of toggling between the wing or small-ball five depending on the matchup. He's quick enough to guard on the perimeter and strong enough to wage battle in the post.
On the offensive end, Washington has gradually expanded the breadth of his skillset in recent years, exploring his face-up game and spending more time targeting mismatches inside. He's a good three-point shooter (34.8 percent last season, 36.6 percent for his career) and his versatility will make it easy to plug him in to any system.
The Pistons have really placed an emphasis on size and physicality in recent years. Washington can space the floor for Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, and he's a tremendous fit next to Jalen Duren or James Wiseman in the starting frontcourt if Detroit selects a wing on draft night.
The Pistons feel like the least desirable destination for "big money" free agents, which could lead them to throw money in Washington's direction instead of, for example, Grant Williams or Rui Hachimura (more on them soon).
Prediction: Pistons offer sheet — four years, $65 million
NBA free agency prediction: Who will sign Rui Hachimura?
Rui Hachimura earned a lot of money with his performance in the playoffs. He was essentially the Lakers' third or fourth-best player during a conference finals run. All the potential scouts once saw in the raw prospect from Gonzaga came bubbling to the surface and he played the best basketball of his career on the biggest possible stage.
The Lakers are reportedly willing to match any Hachimura offer sheet up to $100 million, but that's easier said than done. The new CBA will make it very difficult for expensive teams to flesh out their rosters. The Lakers already have two max contracts in Anthony Davis and LeBron James, plus another major restricted free agent (and arguably a more important restricted free agent) in Austin Reaves.
Hachimura averaged 11.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, and fewer than one assist per game in the regular season. His postseason averages weren't much better, but he did explode in the conference finals against Denver: 15.3 points and 3.8 rebounds on .533/.333/1.000 splits across four games. Frankly, he's not the best power forward here — I'm not even convinced he's better than the aforementioned P.J. Washington. But he was huge in the playoffs for a marquee franchise. Those guys get paid, often far too much.
The teams to watch are Detroit and Indiana. Both teams have a need at power forward. The Pistons need a more modern four who can spread the floor and defend on the perimeter. The Pacers need a legitimate, starting-caliber forward to bolster the frontcourt around Myles Turner. That said, the Lakers continue to broadcast a desire to keep Hachimura and the most likely outcome feels like a reunion.
Prediction: Lakers extension — four years, $75 million
NBA free agency prediction: Who will sign Grant Williams?
Of all the high-profile restricted free agents, Grant Williams is the most likely to have a new home next season. The Celtics have the deepest contending roster in basketball, but the new CBA could make that both a blessing and a curse. Jaylen Brown is due for a potentially historic extension and Boston has multiple key free agents hitting the market over the next few years.
Williams could be the odd man out. He was in and out of the rotation once the playoffs arrived, but he has earned the opportunity for a consistent role somewhere. If Boston doesn't want to spend big, another team gladly will.
The best role players in the NBA tend to be high-feel players who defend and hit threes. Williams checks all three boxes. He doesn't possess explosive athleticism or elite self-creation ability, but Williams consistently makes the right decision and he can absolutely elevate the offense with torrid stretches beyond the arc. He makes the small efforts with screening, cutting, and relocating, he's a great connective passer for his position, and he's capable of guarding 3-5 depending on the matchup.
The power forward market, as you've probably gathered, is pretty saturated at the top. The same teams will be deciding how to prioritize Williams, Washington, and Hachimura, and subsequently where to allocate their money. Williams feels like a Spursian player but the Spurs don't really need another starting-salaried forward. The Pistons grab Washington in this hypothetical, so the Pacers latch onto Williams as a spacer and bullish defender to complement Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner.
Prediction: Pacers offer sheet — four years, $70 million
NBA free agency prediction: Who will sign Cam Johnson?
Cam Johnson was once upon a time the very controversial No. 11 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. Most folks had him pegged in the 20s. He's not athletic enough. He's too old. You've heard the story before. Flash forward, and Johnson would probably go several spots higher in a re-draft.
The Suns traded Johnson to the Nets as part of the Kevin Durant trade. Post-deadline, Johnson took his 3-and-Ding to a whole new level for Brooklyn. He averaged 16.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists on .468/.372/.851 splits. His three-point numbers were actually way down compared to his career averages. One has to expect that will regress back to the mean. Otherwise, he was more involved than ever in the offense and the results were extremely positive. He beat closeouts with dribble pull-ups, he frequently smoked sleeping defenders backdoor for finishes at the rim, and he supplied steady resistance as a wing defender.
The league is still obsessed conceptually with 3-and-D wings. You need to do more than just shoot and defend, and Johnson has proven that there's more to his skill set than meets the eye when the opportunities are provided. The Nets want to keep him, but the price tag could get high. He might be the most expensive restricted free agent on the market.
The Spurs have a lot of wing depth. So do the Magic. Johnson would look great in OKC, but how eager is OKC to deplete its financial flexibility? And thus we arrive at the Houston Rockets, who are plainly looking to leave their rebuild behind and start winning games. With or without James Harden, Johnson could appeal to that team in the prime of his career.
Prediction: Rockets offer sheet — four years, $90 million
NBA free agency prediction: Who will sign Austin Reaves?
The Lakers felt dead in the water before Austin Reaves' emergence as a legitimate third banana offensively. The former undrafted free agent, in only his second NBA season, appeared in 64 regular season games for LA. He started 22, most of them late in the season once the Lakers realized what they had.
Reaves averaged 13.0 points and 3.4 assists while shooting a shade below 40 percent from deep. He is the ideal LeBron James complement on the perimeter — a confident three-point bomber who can beat closeouts, attack rotating defenders, and relieve some of the playmaking pressure on James' shoulders. Reaves' unique ability to get all the way to the rim and consistently draw fouls, despite limited burst and athleticism, made him a real headache for defenses.
He's also an active defender who's especially disruptive roaming in passing lanes and generating pressure as a helper. He's extremely smart and absolutely relentless. He makes the right plays and he makes the effort plays, which translated to high-level postseason basketball. There have already been arguments that Reaves deserves somewhere in the same ballpark as Jordan Poole, who signed a four-year, $128 million extension with Golden State last summer. Reaves is definitely better than Poole.
Now, whether a team will actually shell out that much money is another matter entirely. Poole's contract hasn't aged particularly well and they're different players. Poole has more perceived upside tied to his herky-jerky, quick-twitch athleticism and dynamic movement shooting ability. He also won the championship with Golden State. The Lakers came up short.
That said, Reaves will get his bag. A strong fit is San Antonio. The Spurs need help on the perimeter and could be willing to spend big to accelerate their rebuild with Victor Wembanyama on board. Reaves can take over playmaking duties alongside Devin Vassell in the backcourt while cementing San Antonio as a real team to watch in the West.
Prediction: Spurs offer sheet — four years, $90 million
