After three weeks of the NFL season, trends are starting to emerge and dominant teams are solidifying their place in the power rankings, while struggling teams are watching the grade of their uphill climb get steeper and steeper.
The standings, through three weeks, are what they are, but are not exactly conclusive evidence of what teams are good and what teams are bad. With just three games in the books, one or two almost performances might make it so the record doesn't tell the whole picture.
The Chargers at 1-2 feel capable of turning it around on scoring alone. The Bengals earned their first victory in Week 3 and finally look the part of a fierce AFC competitor. Even an 0-3 team, like the Vikings, might keep holding onto pieces they'd otherwise trade with hopes that they have what it takes to turn things around.
So, instead of the normal win-loss standings, why not divide it up by another metric? Here, we used offensive expected points added per play, which is a metric that captures how much each play is expected to contribute to a team's point total. Getting further down the field adds to your EPA. A first down adds to your EPA even more. A sack for lost yards would take some away. You get the idea.
Expected points added per play courtesy of RBSDM's Shiny app available here.
Here's how, based on that stat, the standings look.
NFL Standings by expected points added per play
In all, the standings don't come with too many surprises. Unshockingly, a 70-point performance and over 500 yards of offense per game places the Dolphins at the top. The Jets, with a league-worst 225 yards of offense per game, hit the unwanted dead-last spot.
We'll get into team specific standings as we go.
AFC standings by expected points added per play
The two big players in the AFC are the Dolphins and Bills, who will face each other for the first of two contests this season on Sunday.
AFC North standings by expected points added per play
The big shock here is the Bengals, who have struggled offensively due in part to Joe Burrow's lingering calf issue. The team looked altogether much stronger on Monday night in Week 3, and jumped up a spot in the league-wide rankings. After a -0.171 in the first two weeks, Week 3 was a -0.080 performance, a greater than 50 percent increase.
AFC East standings by expected points added per play
The AFC East is carried by the two top teams, and New England beating the Jets by just five in Week 3 did not convince a soul their offense is truly for real.
The standings fall exactly how they are.
AFC South standings by expected points added per play
C.J. Stroud might be for real, and is likely the best rookie quarterback straightaway in the draft (though we need to see more from Anthony Richardson, who has only played a game and a quarter thus far).
So far, Stroud has a better personal EPA than:
- Jalen Hurts
- Deshaun Watson
- Daniel Jones
- Joe Burrow
- Trevor Lawrence
It's early, but what a phenomenal start.
The Jaguars are a massive shock to see rounding out the bottom of the standings here.
AFC West standings by expected points added per play
The Chargers, if their defense could stop the bleeding, might be 3-0. They've scored 28.7 points per game good enough for fifth-best, but allow a 28th-best 29.0 points per game.
Every other team in the division is more or less as expected. Don't even ask about the Broncos defensive expected points added, though.
NFC standings by expected points added per play
NFC North standings by expected points added per play
The Packers lead the way as Jordan Love has looked like a complete quarterback right out of the gates now that he has the keys to the castle in Green Bay. Love has the third-best EPA per play in the NFL. Remember, Christian Watson has only played in one game. Green Bay has done it again.
Elsewhere, the Bears are miserable, and everyone else falls in between. Pretty much how it typically goes in the NFC North!
NFC East standings by expected points added per play
The Cowboys maintain the fourth-best point differential in the NFL, and stay atop the NFC East despite a very disappointing offensive effort against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Dak Prescott has the sixth-best EPA among starters.
The Eagles appear most likely to threaten the Cowboys hold over the top spot here both in the real-life standings and standings by EPA. Hurts and the squad finally appeared to get it together on Monday night against Tampa in Week 3.
NFC South standings by expected points added per play
This is more or less how the division was expected to go. Bryce Young -- who has played two games, injured this week -- is a rookie, so you can pencil them last. The Bucs and Saints are led by good but perhaps not great QBs, so they may jockey around this top spot for the season. The Falcons are a wild card in the group.
NFC West standings by expected points added per play
Really tight at the top for NFC West
The NFC West is shockingly condensed in this stat. No team in the division falls outside of No. 6 overall in the NFC or 10 overall in the NFL. The Niners' 30-23 win over the Rams and the Rams' 30-13 win over the Seahawks might have proven that divisional games in the NFC West are worth considering the over for.
The Niners take on the Cardinals in Week 4, fresh off a surprising win over Dallas.
