Sad to say that we're reverting back to reality a bit over the past two weeks by going 2-4 in each. There was an early-morning meeting to review the game film and we learned a bit about our own weaknesses — one being laying way too many points and trusting a favorite to dominate. That's being addressed and we vow to be more judicious with our selections in an attempt to improve on 36-30 (.545) season mark.

LIONS (-7.5) over PACKERS

Even good teams have some bizarre games and the Lions managed to survive one against the Bears by scoring 17 points in quite a hurry before the final whistle. There may be some long-term concerns about their defense and what a mobile quarterback is going to do to them in the playoffs but this is neither the time or place to worry about that. It's Thanksgiving and this team is 8-2 for the first time since JFK was in office. It's all about vibes and it's going to be a terrific celebration of winning football and Jack Harlow at Ford Field. Look for Jared Goff to play a full 60 minutes and the defense to win the turnover battle in a laugher. Lions 34, Packers 17

FALCONS (+1) over SAINTS

Someone is contractually obligated to win the NFC South and we believe this will be the first step for the Falcons on that bold endeavor. They get home cooking and will probably fully commit to making this a one-score in either direction. This is a team that is much better than their record suggests and is poised to go on a run. That should be a bat signal to explore some futures as well. Falcons 22, Saints 20

SEAHAWKS (+6.5) over 49ERS

Brock Purdy is looking a lot like him old self again and most of the concerns surrounding the Niners have been quelled. But this is a divisional game against a Seahawks team that really, really needs a win. And it's so many points to give up at a place with a decided homefield advantage. Look for Seattle to control the clock and make this a low-possession game. Christian McCaffrey probably makes a game-winning play late but it could swing either way. 49ers 30, Seahawks 26

CHARGERS (+4.5) over RAVENS

We've seen more than enough evidence that we cannot trust this Chargers team to emerge victorious in a must-win game. We can, however, be confident that they'll cover this kind of spread at SoFi Stadium. While LA's homefield advantage is... iffy... Ravens fans aren't going to flood the seats in the same way Raiders or 49ers fans do simply as a result of the coast-to-coast travel. Justin Herbert can keep his team in the game even as the defense gives up many consecutive touchdown drives. Baltimore should jump out to an early lead because Lamar Jackson is playing his best football in years but pulling away will be tough as they adjust to the absence of Mark Andrews. Ravens 27, Chargers 23

EAGLES (-3.5) over BILLS

The Bills picked on the Jets last week but there's a sneaking suspicion that they aren't an elite team. They're a good team, to be sure. But the combination of injuries and offensive mistakes piling up is stopping them from reaching the same threshold of championship competitiveness they've occupied the last few seasons. The Eagles are running into their own issues this season and weren't exactly dominant against the Chiefs on Monday night, but they're well-equipped to deal with Buffalo. Philly will be rocking and the Birds will cover. Eagles 31, Bills 24

JAGUARS (-1) over TEXANS

This game shaped up to be way more important than any of us thought, huh? Thanks to some good luck and the rookie magic of CJ Stroud the Texans are 6-4, at home, with a legit chance to tie the Jags for the division lead. Jacksonville brushed off the lingering scent of consecutive shaky performances by beating the daylights out of a banged-up Titans squad. Trevor Lawrence's knee looks fully healthy and, more importantly, he seemed to remember he has Calvin Ridley. The bet here is that Houston isn't quite ready for this moment. The Jags are ready to take the next step, and this is the game where they prove it. Jaguars 33, Texans 20

This article was originally published on thebiglead as NFL Week 12 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Six Best Bets.