NHL best bets today (Don't lose faith in the Stars)

2023-05-23 23:52

Things have not gone well with my bets so far in the Conference Finals. I'm 0-5, with four of the losses coming in OT and the fifth loss coming in a 1-0 Hurricanes defeat on Monday night.With that being said, I'm sticking to my process and trying my best not to overreact to a small sam...

Things have not gone well with my bets so far in the Conference Finals. I'm 0-5, with four of the losses coming in OT and the fifth loss coming in a 1-0 Hurricanes defeat on Monday night.

With that being said, I'm sticking to my process and trying my best not to overreact to a small sample size of games.

Tonight, I'm on one side and one player prop for Game 3 of the Western Conference Final between the Stars and Golden Knights.

Let's dive into them.

NHL Playoffs betting record

41-37-1 (+3.16 units)

NHL best bets tonight

Stars -140 vs. Golden Knights
Jack Eichel UNDER 3.5 shots on goal (-125)

Stars -140 vs. Golden Knights

Just because they're down 0-2, doesn't mean I'm going to stop believing in the Stars. Especially now that they're back at home for Game 3.

If you look at the "expected goals" metric in this series, the Stars have had a significant advantage in this category. Their expected goals per 60 minutes in this series is 3.3, while the Golden Knights are at 2.86.

The key for the Stars is for Jake Oettinger to start playing to the level that he can. He has a save percentage of .885 in this series, which is well below his save percentage in the regular season as well as his save percentage in the playoffs through his career.

The Stars arguably outplayed the Golden Knights in both games in Vegas and forced OT in both of them. Now that they return home, I have no doubt they can notch a win.

I'll take the Stars on the moneyline in Game 3.

Jack Eichel UNDER 3.5 shots on goal (-125)

The Stars have been allowing only 29.81 shots on goal per 60 minutes in this series. Now, with the series shifting back to Dallas, I expect them to tighten down their defense even more.

Dallas allowed only 28.79 shots on goal per game at home during the regular season, the eighth best mark in the NHL.

Jack Eichel has averaged 3.53 shots on goal in the playoffs, so his set number is right at where it should be for this game. But, with the Stars defensive prowess, I think they can shut him down in this game. It's also worth noting that Eichel only had 16:17 of playing time in Game 2.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.