NHL Calder Trophy race: Ducks' Leo Carlsson bursts onto the scene

2023-10-27 21:48

With another week of NHL action in the books, the Calder Trophy race is heating up. Leo Carlsson is challenging Connor Bedard, Logan Cooley, and Adam Fantilli, while blueliners like Luke Hughes and Brock Faber make their cases. Joseph Woll is pushing too.

It's hard to believe, but the first month of the 2023-24 NHL season is already almost over. Through three weeks of action, we've gotten our first tastes of stunning highlights and signature plays from future stars like Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson, Logan Cooley, and Adam Fantilli. How about some of the older rookies that are killing it, like Luke Hughes and Brock Faber?

There can only be one winner, but it's way too early to name one just yet. For now though, let's take a look and see who's leading the pack thus far.

*Note: Team success, size of a player's role, and production are all considered.

3: The best of the rest

10. Toronto Maple Leafs LW Matt Knies
9. Ottawa Senators F Ridly Grieg
8. Philadelphia Flyers RW Bobby Brink
7. Boston Bruins C Matt Poitras
6. Columbus Blue Jackets C Adam Fantilli
5. Arizona Coyotes F Logan Cooley

Tier 2: Calder Trophy Dark Horses

5. Leo Carlsson, C, Anaheim Ducks

Leo Carlsson kind of just came out of nowhere over this past week, and he's made the most of his opportunity so far. With Adam Henrique out with an injury, the 2023 No. 2 overall pick popped into the Anaheim Ducks lineup for the first time in his young career, scoring his first National Hockey League goal in his debut against the Dallas Stars.

Though he's only appeared in three games so far, the 18-year-old already has two goals and an assist while averaging 21:03 of ice time in those games. According to TSN insider Pierre LeBrun, Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek met with Carlsson and his agent, and together they devised a plan to limit the young star to no more than two games a week for the first half of the season.

This is excellent news for Ducks fans and excellent news for Carlsson's development, but it's not excellent for the Swede's Calder chances. If Carlsson doesn't play a ton of games, his point totals should easily fall behind the likes of Adam Fantilli and Connor Bedard. If they don't, however, this thing could be a lot closer than we think.

4. Luke Hughes, D, New Jersey Devils

The New Jersey Devils were expected to take another step forward this season, but they haven't achieved liftoff just yet. Most of the chatter has (rightly) been about the MVP of the first month of the season: Jack Hughes.

However, younger brother Luke Hughes was earmarked to be one of the team's X-Factors heading into the year, and so far he's mostly fit the bill. The 20-year-old has been as advertised so far — dynamic, fast, creative — you name it. The one goal and one assist he has to his name don't match his reputation, but head coach Lindy Ruff has been coddling him at even strength with veteran Brendan Smith.

Although Ruff has historically been trigger-happy when it comes to changing his forward lines, the opposite is true with his defense. For Hughes and the Devils, it's starting to cost them big time. The 2021 No. 4 pick is, and has looked, so much better than a bottom-pair defender next to an aging, ineffective veteran who has a penchant for taking awful penalties.

Hughes isn't a Calder Trophy favorite right now and might even fall in these rankings over the next few weeks, but like Carlsson, eventually, something will have to give. We might see an even better player if the Devils finally decide to cut him loose, like the next player on this list.

3. Pavel Mintyukov, D, Anaheim Ducks

Hey, weren't we just talking about the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim? Well, these Ducks were supposed to be a bad hockey team this year, but some of these young birds are growing their feathers early.

After one year in juniors, the Ducks decided they had seen enough of Pavel Mintyukov. The 2022 No. 10 overall pick scored 62 points in 67 games with the Saginaw Spirit in his draft year, and followed that up with an 84-point campaign split between the Spirit and the Ottawa 67's this past season. Clearly, the 19-year-old convinced the Ducks' brass that he was ready for The Show, and so far that absolutely seems to be the case.

Mintyukov has played in all seven games for Anaheim so far, scoring one goal and three assists whilst commanding 19:40 of ice time a night. On a team that was defensively the NHL's worst last year, Mintyukov also impressively boasts a plus-2 plus-minus rating.

The young Russian rearguard is also second on the Ducks in on-ice expected goals percentage (64.8 percent), which trails none other than his teammate Carlsson (74 percent). Mintyukov has been head and shoulders above his fellow Ducks defensemen, and as long as that continues, he certainly has a real shot of bringing home his first piece of NHL silverware.

Tier 1: Calder Trophy Contender

2. Connor Bedard, C, Chicago Blackhawks

Connor Bedard has been as good as advertised so far, and the only reason he isn't No. 1 on this list is simply because his supporting cast is dreadful. Taylor Hall has been injured twice already this season, and fellow Chicago Blackhawks rookie Kevin Korchinski hasn't blown the roof off the United Center just yet.

Still, Bedard has managed four points in seven games, even though that places him below Logan Cooley, Ridly Grieg, and Matt Poitras in the scoring department. Those guys all play for teams with at least one established star, and that includes the likes of Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux, Tim Stutzle, Charlie McAvoy, David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, and more.

The 2023 No. 1 overall pick is on an island in Chicago, and 38-year-old Corey Perry has been the team's second-best forward in the first month of the 2023-24 season. Perry is a great bottom-sixer on a contender, but ideally not the guy the Blackhawks want as their primary compliment to a stud like Bedard.

We'll see how the season unfolds, but Bedard hasn't lost all his Calder footing just yet. That being said, there are a lot of talented players breathing down his neck right now.

1. Joseph Woll, G, Toronto Maple Leafs

Did someone say goalie controversy? Joseph Woll might be 25 years old, but he's still a rookie. And, if he continues to play like this, there's no contest for the Calder Trophy.

The Toronto Maple Leafs warden has seemingly stolen the crease from incumbent starter Ilya Samsonov, who most recently allowed three goals on four shots against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Before that, Samsonov also allowed five goals on 24 shots against the Montreal Canadiens. Woll, on the other hand, is 3-1-0, boasts a GAA of only 1.33, and a save percentage of 0.961.

If those raw stats weren't enough, the 2016 third-round pick is also fourth in the league in Goals Saved Above Expected, per Moneypuck. Only Alexandar Georgiev (8.2), Jeremy Swayman (6.3), and Jake Oettinger (6.2) have more than Woll (6.1). Samsonov is dead last in the NHL at minus-5.2.

If Woll is in fact the Maple Leafs' new starter, he's got a pretty clear path to a 30-win season as long as his health holds up. And although Toronto's roster went through a lot of turnover thanks to salary cap constraints, they still have an elite core headlined by Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. Defensively, they are a bit weaker, but perhaps Woll's play will inspire some confidence in the blue line. If the standard of play remains the same, we have a runaway Calder Trophy favorite on our hands.