The win-streak ended at seven games for the Tampa Bay Rays after an 8-4 loss to Nathan Eovaldi and the Texas Rangers yesterday. Tampa Bay is now 47-20 and Texas is 41-22 heading into the rubber match at Tropicana Field today. Both offenses have had their chance to shine, but we could see a bit of a pitcher's duel in the series finale with a pair of lefties on the mound.
Martin Perez is making his 13th start of the season for Texas and comes in at 6-1 with a 3.97 ERA. On the other side, Shane McClanahan has been even better in his 13 starts with a 9-1 record and an ERA of 2.02.
Let's check out the odds for the Rays and Rangers series finale as the best two teams in the American League go head-to-head one more time.
Rangers vs. Rays odds, run line and total
Rangers vs. Rays prediction and pick
At first glance this looks like it will almost certainly be a matchup of two very good pitchers who have a chance to slow down the two best lineups in baseball. However, I think this one could turn into another high scoring affair after 11 runs in Game 1 and 12 yesterday.
First off, the Rays are second in OPS against lefties, .892 and their 27 home runs are fourth in the MLB. Randy Arozarena has a 1.079 OPS against left-handers and a team high five home runs. He had a hit, two walks, and scored a run in the loss yesterday. The Rangers are third in OPS against lefties, .842 and Josh Jung has been just as good as Arozarena, 1.044 OPS and five homers.
Second, and maybe even more important is these pitchers are due for some regression. McClanahan has a FIP of 3.50 and an expected ERA of 3.58 in large part because of a walk rate that is bottom third of all pitchers in the MLB. Perez's numbers are even uglier, a 4.71 FIP, 4.91 xERA, 14th percentile strikeout rate, and 22nd percentile expected slugging.
These are the two best lineups in the MLB and they both get even better when facing lefties. These pitchers have been good so far this year, but their numbers could look a lot worse after this one. I love the over in the series finale.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
