Much of Europe and the northeast US are in store for sweltering summer temperatures well above historical norms, posing risks for crops and energy demand.
Scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service see a probability of more than 60% that temperatures across the northeastern US, Spain, France and Italy will be well above average from June to August, they said in a closely-watched seasonal outlook on Wednesday. Their data is used by farmers, insurers and utilities to help adapt to the hotter temperatures and erratic rainfall caused by planetary warming.
Abnormally high temperatures could fuel natural gas demand to power air conditioning, just as utilities try to replenish stocks ahead of the winter. Russia’s war on Ukraine last year drove gas prices in Europe to record highs, contributing to a cost-of-living crisis that continues to linger across the continent.
European farmers, power utilities and insurers are already facing record heat and drought, foreshadowing even faster changes to the continent’s climate, with scientists warning that feedback loops from a drying Earth will lead to dangerously high temperatures again this year.
The Copernicus program uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world for its monthly and seasonal forecasts. Along with the European Space Agency, Copernicus plays a central role in the EU’s €16 billion ($17.5 billion) effort to get ahead of climate change through accurate forecasting. It’s already the world’s biggest provider of climate data.
Southern Europe has a 40% to 50% chance of seeing significantly higher rainfall, according to the data. That may ease pressure in places like Italy, where the Po River hit its lowest levels in seven decades last year.
The southwest US has a 50% to 60% chance of experiencing significantly reduced rainfall this summer. There’s too much uncertainty in the data to make precipitation forecasts across the rest of Europe and the US.
Persistent drought has threatened to stress production of crops like wheat and corn as reduced harvests in Ukraine threaten to curtail shipments. A dry spell currently is wilting crops and delaying plantings in some of Europe’s top produce growers, risking a further run-up in food inflation.
