Spurs vs. Lakers prediction and odds for NBA Summer League (Value on total)

2023-07-05 02:24

The Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs had very different opening games in the California Classic of the NBA’s Summer League on Monday.Los Angeles was torched by Jaime Jacquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic in a 107-90 loss to the Miami Heat, while the Spurs – without Victor Wembanyama &...

The Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs had very different opening games in the California Classic of the NBA's Summer League on Monday.

Los Angeles was torched by Jaime Jacquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic in a 107-90 loss to the Miami Heat, while the Spurs – without Victor Wembanyama – blew out No. 2 overall pick Brandon Miller and the Charlotte Hornets.

Who would've thought?

The Spurs got huge games from Dominick Barlow (24 points) and Julian Champagnie (30 points) to down Charlotte.

Meanwhile, the Lakers shot just 20.8 percent from beyond the arc as a team in the loss to Miami. Los Angeles still has a lot of NBA talent on the roster (Max Christie, Cole Swider, Jalen Hood-Schifino), but it finds itself as a five-point underdog on Wednesday night.

Let's break down the odds and my best bet for this Summer League showdown:

Spurs vs. Lakers odds, spread and total

Spread

Spurs -5 (-110)
Lakers +5 (-110)

Moneyline

Spurs: -200
Lakers: +170

Total

170.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds are available via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spurs vs. Lakers prediction and pick

I foolishly faded the Spurs without Wembanyama in their Summer League opener, but I won't be making that mistake in this game.

Instead of taking a side, I'm looking at the total, specifically the OVER on Wednesday night.

Every single game on Monday night had at least 175 combined points, smashing the totals that were mainly set in the 160s. I'm going to ride that trend even with the total in this game set at 170.5.

The Lakers made just five shots from beyond the arc against Miami, yet they still found a way to score 90 points. Los Angeles played pretty uptempo in the game, getting off 76 shots and turning it over 17 times (approximately 93 possessions).

I think a closer game than San Antonio's blowout on Monday will help the total as well, as the Spurs scored just 17 fourth quarter points against Charlotte with the game already in hand. Despite the Hornets offensive struggles, that game still finished with 175 combined points.

The Spurs didn't really shoot the lights out either (45.3 percent from the field, 36.0 percent from 3), so I don't think it's realistic to expect another high-scoring game.

Pick: OVER 170.5 (-110)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.