Everyone seemed sure that Damian Lillard would eventually wind up with the Miami Heat. Then, for about 48 hours, the consensus was he was headed to the Toronto Raptors. Seemingly out of nowhere, the Milwaukee Bucks swooped in and landed Lillard just days before training camp opens.
All three teams involved in the trade did well for themselves, but some better than others and the ripples of this deal, positive and negative, could touch a dozen or more teams. Here's the official structure of the deal.
And here are the teams who should be affected the most.
Winners from the Damian Lillard trade: Milwaukee Bucks
Over the past few weeks, Giannis Antetokounmpo avoided an extension with the Bucks, signaling he wanted to make sure this was his best chance at winning another title before recommitting to the team long-term. The Bucks couldn't have sent a stronger message that they heard him and took it to heart than trading for Lillard.
Lillard is an offensive game-changer with the kind of gravity and creation ability that Milwaukee desperately lacked in the playoffs. He and Giannis complement each other unbelievably well and even though he's a significant defensive downgrade from Holiday, he solves their biggest problem in an enormous way.
On paper, they can build perhaps the most talented and well-balanced five-man rotation in the league. The Bucks need to overcome a lack of depth and they'll have to figure out how to maintain their top-notch defense. And they're incredibly vulnerable to injury, but not any more so than any of the other top contenders.
And the Bucks won plenty of other ancillary victories as well. They kept Lillard off the Heat or Raptors. They may have made it more difficult for the 76ers to trade James Harden. And, looking way, way down the line, may have made the Suns more vulnerable to Giannis and Brook Lopez in a potential NBA Finals rematch.
This was a gamble by the Bucks, but it was a smart one and if it pays off, it pays off huge.
Losers from the Damian Lillard trade: Miami Heat
The Heat didn't just lose out on Damian Lillard. They probably lost a chance to make a play for Giannis a year from now and lost out on most of an offseason of other opportunities as they waited around for the deal to come through. After a somewhat improbable run to the Finals powered by unsustainable shooting and a summer in which most of their key rivals in the East have made big upgrades, all the Heat did was turn Gabe Vincent and Max Strus into Josh Richardson and Thomas Bryant.
The Heat could pull another rabbit out of their hat in the playoffs, but this looks like a team ripe for some serious regression.
Winners: Portland Trail Blazers
It seems painfully obvious that one of the things the Trail Blazers were after was NOT trading Lillard to the Heat. They not only accomplished that by stubbornly holding the line, they also landed a package that seems, pretty clearly, to be superior.
Supposedly the Heat had offered Tyler Herro, a pair of future first-round picks and some odds and ends for salary-matching. Presumably, the Blazers could have played hardball and gotten their pick of Heat role players.
Instead they ended up with Deandre Ayton, a young big man that they seemed to covet much more than Herro. They also landed an unprotected first-round pick and a pair of first-round pick swaps on either end meaning they essentially own a three-year window of the Bucks draft assets, beginning in 2028 when Giannis would be coming out of his age-33 season.
They also landed Jrue Holiday who they will likely find an easier time trading than Herro, in a deal that could probably land them another interesting young player and probably a pick or two.
They got a better deal and they got to indulge in some moderately petty spite. That's a win all around.
Losers: Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers just saw the Milwaukee Bucks make a huge upgrade while they continue to sit around waiting to see if James Harden will actually show up for training camp. The Suns' involvement in the trade removes a third team who could have potentially helped facilitate a Harden trade and the Raptors opting out to hold onto OG Anunoby likely removes another.
In addition, with the Lillard situation resolved there may be several other trade pieces available who could take potential suitors for Harden out of play. Jrue Holiday is very good, a less complicated on- and off-court piece to integrate into a contender and will likely take a lot less to acquire from Portland than 76ers' are hoping to get for Harden.
If you're the Clippers (reportedly the only team really interested in Harden), why wouldn't you rather make a player for Holiday instead?
Winners: Anyone looking for a veteran rotation player
The way the Lillard trade has shaken out has put a few other interesting pieces onto the trade market who could be extremely interesting for teams like the Clippers, Mavericks, Celtics, Hawks, Magic and others.
Jrue Holiday will turn 34 this season and has a $37 million player option for next season. But he's still a very good two-way rotation player who can facilitate, hit open 3s, play on- or off-the-ball and handle a variety of defensive matchups. He played in 67 games last season as the starting point guard for the team with the best record in the league, having one of the best seasons of his career and making the All-Star team for the first time since he was 22. Reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.
And it's not just Holiday.
Now that the Lillard trade is done, the Blazers could explore trading Jerami Grant — who averaged 20.5 points per game and hit better than 40 percent of his 3s last season — as well as Anfernee Simons or Matisse Thybulle.
It's not entirely clear how quickly they'll be looking to rebuild with 25-year-old Deandre Ayton as their new centerpiece. But if they're sinking in the standings and the No. 1 pick is in player in the middle of this season, it wouldn't be surprising for them to become big sellers at the trade deadline, spreading even more talent around to potential contenders.
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1. A rough day for Heat fans all around. "Miami's grand plan just imploded. The Heat missed out on Damian Lillard, who was practically begging to join the Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo party in South Beach. And where does he end up? With the rival Milwaukee Bucks, of all places. Now, the Heat will have to watch him elevate a conference foe back into NBA Finals contention. Brutal." The Heat Didn't Panic for Dame. Maybe They Should Have.
2. This Bucks offense is going to be WILD: "For years, the Golden State Warriors have wreaked havoc on opposing defenses by using Steph Curry on the ball to bend defenses out of shape and create four-on-three advantages for Draymond Green as a roll man. Just imagine Antetokounmpo attacking those same advantages with Lillard on his squad." Bucks trade for Damian Lillard signals one thing: It's time for another championship push.
3. Masai Ujiri may have outsmarted himself: "It would appear the Raptors were ultimately unwilling to part with O.G. Anunoby, the only sensible centerpiece for a Toronto package. While the Raptors' ongoing commitment to the 26-year-old out of Indiana is admirable, let's keep it real: Anunoby isn't good enough for the "off-table" treatment in Damian Lillard trade talks. If the Raptors are at all serious about winning, trading Anunoby for Lillard is a no-brainer." 5 teams who will regret not beating Bucks' offer for Damian Lillard.
