With the MLB trade deadline coming up, there is room for the Dodgers to take a good bullpen and make it even better with a reunion.
By most metrics, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a decent bullpen. They rank fourth-best in FIP-, are top-10 in SIERA, and keep their walks low and strikes high (10th-best in BB% and 11th-best in K%).
That doesn't mean they shouldn't look to make upgrades, especially considering the Dodgers have gone to the bullpen more than most teams. Starters for the Dodgers have logged just over 500 innings so far this season, 24th in the majors. Relievers have logged a shade under 400, which is eighth-most in the majors.
One team thought to be selling off pitchers at the trade deadline is the Chicago White Sox, a franchise in frankly miserable territory stuck with big contracts and little way forward. They need to sell off some of their talent to hope to give themselves some sort of a future.
Joe Kelly would be a good reunion piece for the Dodgers to target
Kendall Graveman and Keynan Middleton are relievers that might get some traction as trade bait in Chicago, too, but Joe Kelly is one with existing ties to the Dodgers. Kelly pitched in LA from 2019 to 2021 before picking things up in Chicago.
Kelly flashes a 4.66 ERA this year, which doesn't sound incredible but contextually makes a bit more sense considering the poor defense behind him. His FIP indicates he's pitching better than the ERA implies, with that clocking in at 3.01.
Further proving that point is the fact that three of his five pitches have a higher batting average than expected batting average. With a strong defense behind him, a pitch like his fastball should greatly improve, since the XBA on it is 146 points lower than the batting average.
Compared to the other option if the Dodgers look to the Sox for bullpen help, Graveman, Kelly looks like the player best suited for a jump forward in performance. Graveman only has two pitches with substantially higher BA than XBA.
Outside of Chicago, the Dodgers might prefer to pull Josh Hader from the in-state Padres, but there's a slim chance they want to deal with a division rival.
Kelly's arsenal is one to salivate over, even if the typically advanced metrics don't jump off the page. His fastball velocity rates in the 99th percentile, and his curveball spins in the 95th percentile. But his slider is taking more of a front seat this year, jumping up from 15.8 percent usage to 23 percent usage this year, scoring in as his best pitch with a run value of three.
With five pitches, each used more than 10 percent of the time, he has the stuff to keep batters guessing.
Kelly had strong years in 2020 and 2021 with the Dodgers. A reunion might just play well.
