Newly installed Speaker Mike Johnson confronts critical early tests with an emergency aid request for Ukraine and Israel and a mid-November funding deadline to keep open the US government — all made more difficult by House Republicans’ ideological divide.

The 51-year-old Republican, a little-known congressman until he rose to lead the House, has no track record in high-level Washington negotiations. He’s only offered broad hints on how he will proceed, but they already point to conflict with Senate Democrats and President Joe Biden.

It’s also unclear how much leeway conservatives will give him to reach the compromises needed to get legislation past the Democratic-led Senate and signed into law by Biden. While many GOP lawmakers say he deserves latitude during an initial honeymoon period, he faces pressure from hardliners to cut spending and challenge Biden administration policies.

Bloomberg Intelligence now rates the odds of a government shutdown starting Nov. 18 at 30%, predicting conservatives will allow Johnson more discretion initially, but with the risk of a fiscal impasse rising next year.

While there is broad support for both Israel and Ukraine in Congress, more than half of the House GOP, including Johnson, voted last month against new Ukraine aid.

“I would expect that we wouldn’t be funding Ukraine,” Representative Matt Gaetz, a Florida Republican, said in an interview Thursday. Gaetz triggered the revolt that toppled former speaker Kevin McCarthy and strongly opposes Biden’s proposal for $61 billion in Ukraine aid.

Johnson told Fox News’s Sean Hannity Thursday that the US would not abandon Ukraine, but said he planned to separate its needs from aid to Israel, a conflict with what Biden is seeking and a stance that would add significant delay in the Senate.

“We can’t allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine because I don’t believe it would stop there and it would probably encourage and empower China to perhaps make a move on Taiwan,” Johnson said. “We want to know what the objective there is, what is the endgame.”

Crucially, Johnson also said Republicans would seek cuts in the rest of the federal budget to offset emergency aid. Democrats, meanwhile, are certain to oppose the kinds of spending cuts Republicans want — like nixing clean energy subsidies or Internal Revenue Service enforcement funding signed by Biden last year.

Representative Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, the chairman of the Freedom Caucus, said Ukraine could get funded if it’s paired with Republican priorities — like shrinking spending at the IRS and cutting back Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act — along with stricter US immigration policies.

A number of defense hawks in the House, including Foreign Affairs Chairman Mike McCaul of Texas, have backed the idea of a big supplemental bill including Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and US border security. Ukraine also has strong backing from Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and other senior Republicans.

Johnson already sent a letter to Republican lawmakers saying he would seek short-term funding to prevent a November government shutdown, delaying a larger fight on the federal budget until next year. McCarthy was unable to get House Republicans to approve temporary funding for the government, even with deep cuts as a condition, and then was ousted after he allowed such a plan to pass with Democratic help.

Johnson said in his interview with Hannity on Thursday he would impose conditions on any short-term funding for the government but didn’t elaborate on what they would be.

Again, any conditions that satisfied hardline conservatives would be sure to provoke a fight with Senate Democrats and the White House.

Johnson has vowed the House will take up the House’s remaining spending bills in the coming weeks, after passing the energy and water bill on Thursday, including cuts to Biden’s climate initiatives.

Familiar Choices

Republicans in both chambers have also been demanding changes in immigration policies, especially regarding asylum claims, amid soaring encounters on the US southern border. Biden proposed a major border security spending package alongside Ukraine, Israel, and aid for Taiwan, but Republicans have long argued that more money isn’t enough.

Senate Republicans meanwhile have been pressing Democrats to find a compromise on the border, while some House Republicans want Johnson to negotiate a far stronger border package, including changes to immigration policy, before backing more Ukraine money.

On both Ukraine and government funding, Johnson could be headed for the same choice that faced McCarthy before he was ousted — cut a deal with Democrats likely to anger his right flank, or head into a deeply unpopular shutdown with US troops and allies facing increased threats.

Author: Steven T. Dennis