US shale producers will stick to their previously announced plans for 2023 — growing output modestly while returning lots of cash to investors — even as Saudi Arabia throttles back supplies in the height of the summer driving season.

“Shale producers are still very focused on returning money to investors, which is their new social contract,” energy historian and S&P Global Vice Chairman Daniel Yergin said Monday in an interview on Bloomberg TV.

Even if US operators wanted to boost production beyond the 12.5 million barrels expected per day for 2023, they likely don’t have enough inventory to do so, private equity firm Kimmeridge Energy Management Co.’s Managing Partner Ben Dell said Monday.

“US discipline is here to stay,” Dell said. “I don’t see them deviating from that strategy one bit.”

Author: Mitchell Ferman and Gerson Freitas Jr.