Virginia Democrats won majorities in the state’s two legislative chambers, defeating Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin’s effort to unify GOP control and stymieing momentum that he could’ve used for possible 2028 presidential springboard.
Tuesday’s vote, which saw every seat in the House of Delegates and state Senate up for election, was closely watched for how it might affect both next year’s presidential election — and Youngkin’s political future.
Going into the race, Republicans held a narrow majority in the House of Delegates and had ambitions of flipping the Senate.
Democratic victories weren’t isolated to Virginia. The party also had successes in Kentucky, Ohio and Pennsylvania, a sign that the party’s messaging, particularly around abortion rights, is resonating with voters.
The victory is a major boon for President Joe Biden, whose party for a second time during his time in the White House bucked historical historical trends by fending off anticipated Republican surges in mid-cycle elections. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear won a second term as a Democrat, Ohio voters endorsed abortion protections and Youngkin failed to flip the Virginia legislature.
Virginia Democrats had at least a one-seat majority in both the House and Senate, with the results still being counted early Tuesday.
The election presented a test of Youngkin’s political strength, just two years after the former Carlyle Group Inc. private equity executive won Virginia’s governorship with an upset victory in a state trending toward the Democratic column.
Youngkin campaigned to score a trifecta that would result in both chambers of the state legislature and the governor’s mansion being in Republican hands. Youngkin and his super political action committee poured political capital and cash into the election, pushing a conservative agenda, including a 15-week ban on abortions — with exceptions for rape, incest and to protect the life of the mother — a more restrictive proposal than current law which bars abortions after 26 weeks.
Youngkin now faces a tough path to enact legislation that could have bolstered his standing in the party. He has been a favorite of Republican donors and the center of speculation about a future presidential bid, including among party insiders who even saw him as a potential late entry to the 2024 race. Tuesday’s result threatens to dash hopes for a presidential run next year, leaving supporters likely looking ahead to 2028.
Republicans underperformed in competitive seats throughout the state, particularly in the Washington and Richmond suburbs, ceding ground in the first test of new political maps.
“It means they still got a big problem on abortion rights,” Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said.
The Virginia result was more good news for Biden in a state he won by 10 percentage points in 2020 over Donald Trump. Virginia has not backed a Republican for president since 2004. If Youngkin had delivered Republicans both chambers of the legislature that threatened to force Democrats to devote more resources to the state and away from other battlegrounds in a potential Biden-Trump rematch.
Contests Tuesday in both Kentucky and Ohio highlighted the salience of abortion as a powerful political issue.
Voters in Ohio approved a ballot measure that would protect reproductive rights in the state. Ohio’s results follow other states that typically vote for Republicans, including Kansas, where voters have supported upholding abortion access.
Abortion also played a key role in the Kentucky governor’s race. Beshear won in a race where he criticized his opponent Republican Daniel Cameron, the state’s attorney general, over Kentucky’s abortion ban. Cameron lost in a state that Trump carried by nearly 25 points in 2020.
Veteran GOP strategist Tucker Martin cautioned against seeing the results as damaging to Youngkin’s prospects.
“Everybody’s going to conflate Governor Youngkin’s popularity and future with what happens in the off-year elections in Virginia,” Martin said. “I just don’t think those two things are one and the same.”
(Updates election results for House of Delegates)
