Every MLB team's actual playoff odds compared to FanGraphs’ playoff odds

2023-05-15 02:51

We’re just over a month into the Major League Baseball season, but the dust is beginning to settle with some teams coming back to earth and others heating up after the initial start to the season.The American League East is highly competitive, but the rest of the AL has been below average ...

We're just over a month into the Major League Baseball season, but the dust is beginning to settle with some teams coming back to earth and others heating up after the initial start to the season.

The American League East is highly competitive, but the rest of the AL has been below average to start the 2023 campaign.

In the National League, the Philadelphia Phillies have won five straight to move into second in the NL East, but other contenders, like the St. Louis Cardinals, find themselves chasing in the division at this point in the season.

Bettors have the luxury of being able to check the ever-changing playoff odds in MLB to find value, but how do they compare to the odds from the analytics gurus at FanGraphs?

Below we have the odds for each team to make their MLB playoffs, their implied probability on those odds, and FanGraphs' odds for each team.

Based on where FanGraphs has each team, we can find discrepancies in the implied odds that may lead to betting value at this point in the season. Essentially, the implied odds are longer than the FanGraphs' odds, it may be worth a small wager.

Arizona Diamondbacks odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 33.33%
FanGraphs odds: 36.0%

Atlanta Braves odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 98.04%
FanGraphs odds: 98.7%

Baltimore Orioles odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 50.0%
FanGraphs odds: 39.5%

Boston Red Sox odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 30.30%
FanGraphs odds: 32.5%

Chicago Cubs odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 25.0%
FanGraphs odds: 23.1%

Chicago White Sox odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 8.33%
FanGraphs odds: 3.7%

Cincinnati Reds odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 5.56%
FanGraphs odds: 1.7%

Cleveland Guardians odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 29.41%
FanGraphs odds: 21.8%

Detroit Tigers odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 7.69%
FanGraphs odds: 2.7%

Houston Astros odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 71.43%
FanGraphs odds: 63.1%

Kansas City Royals odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: Not available
FanGraphs odds: 0.3%

Los Angeles Angels odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 33.33%
FanGraphs odds: 30.2%

Los Angeles Dodgers odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 95.24%
FanGraphs odds: 94.6%

Miami Marlins odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 25.64%
FanGraphs odds: 21.4%

Milwaukee Brewers odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 71.01%
FanGraphs odds: 68.8%

Minnesota Twins odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 71.43%
FanGraphs odds: 77.5%

New York Mets odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 65.52%
FanGraphs odds: 58.6%

New York Yankees odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 70.59%
FanGraphs odds: 70.2%

Philadelphia Phillies odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 60.0%
FanGraphs odds: 58.2%

Pittsburgh Pirates odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 14.29%
FanGraphs odds: 11.6%

San Diego Padres odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 70.59%
FanGraphs odds: 67.8%

Seattle Mariners odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 38.46%
FanGraphs odds: 28.7%

San Francisco Giants odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 25.0%
FanGraphs odds: 32.0%

St. Louis Cardinals odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 34.48%
FanGraphs odds: 27.4%

Tampa Bay Rays odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 94.12%
FanGraphs odds: 93.6%

Texas Rangers odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 53.49%
FanGraphs odds: 59.4%

Toronto Blue Jays odds to make the playoffs

Implied odds: 74.03%
FanGraphs odds: 76.8%

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.