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As nations across Southern Europe along with parts of the US face temperatures topping 40C, El Nino conditions are building in the Pacific that bring a chance of a record-breaking event that will bring more such sweltering heat. Last month saw a “weak” El Nino form, a periodic climatic event around the warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, which can cause knock-on heat around the world. But an update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) on Thursday said that it will almost certainly strengthen throughout the year, with an 81 per cent chance it will peak with a “moderate to strong intensity” between November and January. There is a one in five chance that this event will be of “historic” strength, rivaling the major one experienced in 1997, Noaa said. Such an event would only increase the chances of more extreme heat as seen in Italy, Spain, Greece and parts of the US this week, with an expectation such temperatures will continue into next week. The European Space Agency (ESA), whose satellites monitor land and sea temperatures, said July will be a torrid month, with the heatwave in the region – named Cerberus – pushing temperatures up towards 48C (118F). "Italy, Spain, France, Germany and Poland are all facing a major heatwave with temperatures expected to climb to 48 Celsius on the islands of Sicily and Sardinia, potentially the hottest temperatures ever recorded in Europe," it said. Tourists have been warned to take care in the extreme heat, with Cerberus has taken hold across many popular British family holiday hotspots in the Mediterranean. An Abta spokesman said: "High temperatures around our favourite holiday hotspots are not uncommon at this time of year and it is always important that you take sensible precautions, particularly making sure that you and your family drink plenty of bottled water as it is extremely easy to become dehydrated, and always use plenty of high factor sun cream. "Follow the example of local people and leave the beach at midday and early afternoon when the sun is at its most powerful, to have a long, leisurely alfresco lunch in the shade. "Holidaymakers have the option of cooling off in the pool or sea and don't forget to put on the air conditioning or turn on the fan at night to ensure you have a cool, restful sleep." Rebekah Sherwin, an expert meteorologist from the Met Office's global forecasting team, said the "heatwave conditions already occurring across much of southern Europe, northwest Africa and the Middle East are expected to continue through the coming week". She added: "Peak temperatures, which are around 10 to 15C higher than average, could reach the mid-40s degrees Celsius in parts of southern Europe and up to 50C in parts of North Africa. Ms Sherwin said that "unusually high" sea surface temperatures are also occurring across the region, with many parts of the Mediterranean seeing surface temperatures as high as 25 to 28C. Weather alerts were in place across Spain's Canary Islands, Italy, Cyprus and Greece, with the Greek authorities expecting temperatures to reach as high as 43C or 44C on Friday or Saturday. In Greece, the government has ordered the suspension of work between 12pm and 5pm local time in areas where the risk from heat is very high, and also requested remote work for private sector employees with health conditions. In the Balkans, beachgoers in the Croatian town of Nin smeared themselves in its medicinal local mud to protect themselves from the sun while 56 firefighters with 20 vehicles and three aircraft struggled to contain a brush fire near the Adriatic town of Sibenik. In Southwest US, searing conditions will build into Friday and throughout the weekend in the central and southern parts of California, where many residents should prepare for the hottest weather of the year, the US National Weather Service warned. Midday highs were mostly expected to be above 38C, and desert areas could reach nearly 49C, forecasters said. Across the US, more than 111 million people were under extreme heat advisories, watches and warnings. The heat could continue into next week as a high pressure dome moves west from Texas. In Arizona, temperatures have hit 43C for more than a dozen consecutive days. The United Nation's World Meteorological Organisation said on Monday that global temperatures recorded in early July were among the hottest on record. Presss Association, Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report Read More Florida coral reefs risk ‘nasty bleaching’ as temperatures reach 90F Hottest week on record ‘worrying news for planet’, say scientists Earth sets its hottest day record for third time in a week Deforestation of Amazon down by a third in 2023 after Bolsonaro’s defeat Earth’s record high temperature maintained for second day Beijing bans outdoor work after city suffers 10-day streak of temperatures beyond 35C

European countries are among the least prepared in the world for more hot days in a 2C warmer