The UK is probably at least a half decade away from making 1 million cars a year again, according to the industry’s trade group.

Production is expected to increase 11% to around 860,000 units this year, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said Thursday. Output may rise to about 986,000 cars in 2028, according to the industry lobby, which cited an optimistic-scenario projection by research firm AutoAnalysis.

While British car production rebounded in the first half of this year, climbing 12%, the industry has been mired in a slump that predates the pandemic. Output fell last year to the lowest since 1956. Factors contributing to the slide include Honda Motor Co. shutting its lone plant in Swindon, Stellantis NV converting a car factory to vans, and Jaguar Land Rover shifting its lineup to higher-value, lower-volume products.

The biggest obstacle to the industry mounting a more pronounced comeback is high energy costs, Mike Hawes, SMMT’s chief executive officer, told reporters Wednesday.

“What we need is that level playing field,” Hawes said. The trade group will deliver a clear message to whoever forms the next government: “You need to make sure we have a more sustainable energy sector — stable and more affordable for business.”